If there is one idea that justifies the use of the title “Scientific Advertising” by copywriter Claude Hopkins it’s this…
“Almost any question can be answered, cheaply, quickly and finally, by a test campaign. And that’s the way to answer them – not by arguments around a table. Go to the court of last resort – the buyers of your product.”
Now, I’d suggest that the buyers should be the court of first resort (not last!), but that’s a quibble.
In chapter 15 of his classic copywriting book “Scientific Advertising”. Claude Hopkins discusses two ways to use testing…
The first is when introducing a new product.
Hopkins pointed out that “There are many surprises in advertising”.
His point was that there are many different factors that influence the success or failure of a marketing campaign.
Consequently, it’s simply not possible to use analysis – however well-informed or sophisticated – to accurately predict the success or failure of a campaign.
And “analysis” is probably a generous term to use to describe the “gut feel” and guesswork that lies behind many marketing decisions even today.
I digress.
So, Hopkins’ recommendation was always to start small and test a campaign in a small section of the market.
That test would serve to determine some key data such as the cost per customer, the value of each customer and the overall profitability.
Once those figures are determined from the test, then the marketer can make use of the laws of statistics.
In the words of Hopkins…
“Now we let the thousands decide what the millions will do. We make a small venture, and watch cost and result. When we learn what a thousand customers cost, we know almost exactly what a million will cost. When we learn what they buy, we know what a million will buy.”
Now, if you’re not familiar with statistical techniques, let me add a word of caution here. While Hopkins makes this sound easy, projecting results in this manner can be fraught with danger.
The key to using this approach successfully is to have a test market that has the same characteristics, as far as possible, as the broader market.
Today, after decades of refinement, there are known test markets that are well suited to predicting results from the larger market.
I suspect that in Hopkins’ time, things were less well understood and there might well have been some trial-and error-involved.
(For the interested reader, “Statistics Without Tears” by Derek Rowntree is a good primer for non-mathematicians.)
However, the broader point about testing is valid.
And it forms the basis of a potentially highly effective business strategy, as Hopkins describes…
“From the few thousands he learns what the millions will do. Then he acts accordingly. If he then branches out he knows to a certainty just what his results will be.”
“He is playing on the safe side of a hundred to one shot. If the article is successful, it may make him millions. If he is mistaken about it, the loss is a trifle.”
In essence, Hopkins is describing a strategy of first testing and then following up a success with a broader rollout.
The second way to use testing is to refine the effectiveness of existing advertising and marketing.
I’ve discussed this previously so I’ll simply note this comment…
“…we tried over fifty separate plans. Every little while we found an improvement, so the results of our advertising grew constantly. At the end of five years we found the best plan of all. It reduced our cost of selling by 75 percent. That is, it was four times more effective than the best plan used before.”
Imagine the difference to the bottom line that made!
Again, just a word of caution here.
No market is static. Markets and the preferences of consumers change over time. Certainly, some markets change relatively slowly. But they will change.
So, what works best in advertising and market is also likely to change.
And the key to being aware of that change is, of course, to always be testing and tracking results.
That lesson remains as valid today as ever. And in the modern world, it’s never been easier and cheaper to test and track.
I’ll close with these thoughts from Claude Hopkins…
“Plausible arguments are easy in this line. One man after another comes to an advertiser to claim superior knowledge or ability…Now actual figure gained at a small cost can settle the question definitely.”